1 or 2 | The Binary Medical Specialty Explorer

Data source

The comparison uses NRMP Charting Outcomes in the Match for U.S. MD seniors, 2024. Each specialty table reports averages among applicants who matched and applicants who did not match to their preferred specialty.

Only specialties with a Charting Outcomes table appear in the Compare dropdown. Fellowship paths are routed to the closest available residency specialty table when a direct fellowship-specific table does not exist.

What the radar shows

The dashed outline represents the average matched applicant in the selected specialty. The teal shape represents the values currently entered in the controls.

If the teal shape reaches the dashed outline on an axis, that input is at about the matched-applicant average. If it extends beyond the dashed outline, that input is above the matched-applicant average for that specialty.

Numeric inputs

The six numeric axes are Step 2 CK score, contiguous ranked programs, research projects, abstracts/presentations/publications, work experiences, and volunteer experiences.

For each axis, the entered value is compared with the matched-applicant mean for that specialty. The chart is scaled so values above the mean can still be seen, but very high values are capped visually so the radar remains readable.

Needed for 90% markers

The Step 2 CK and contiguous-rank sliders include a small 90% marker when the NRMP probability curve crosses 0.90 for the selected specialty. These markers are estimated from the plotted Charting Outcomes probability curves, not from a new prediction model.

If the Step 2 curve reaches 90% below the current Step 2 CK passing score, the slider does not show the sub-passing threshold. It instead notes that passing Step 2 reaches 90% on that NRMP curve.

If the Step 2 curve does not reach 90% within the plotted score range, no 90% marker is shown for that slider. That does not mean matching is impossible or that one input controls the outcome; it only describes what that single NRMP curve displays.

Credentials

AOA, Top 40 NIH-funded medical school, PhD, and other graduate degree are combined into one radar axis called Credentials.

That axis starts at 1 rather than 0 so the chart does not visually imply that having none of those traits is alarming. Checked items add points up to a total axis range of 1 to 5.

The added points are weighted by the specialty-specific gap between matched and unmatched applicants. A checkbox matters more when the matched percentage is meaningfully higher than the unmatched percentage in that specialty table, and credentials without a positive matched-applicant gap do not add weight for that specialty.

Specialty match share

The match-share card shows the percentage of analyzed U.S. MD seniors in that specialty table who matched to their preferred specialty. It is calculated as matched applicants divided by matched plus unmatched applicants in the NRMP table.

This is not the same thing as an individual match probability. Applicant strategy, school context, specialty-specific advising, interview performance, signaling, program list construction, geography, and application quality can all matter.

How to use it

Use this as a context tool: “Do my inputs look broadly similar to the average matched applicant in this specialty?” It is most useful for noticing large gaps, not for interpreting small differences.

Meeting or exceeding every average does not guarantee a match. Falling below an average does not mean matching is impossible. Averages flatten very different applicant stories into one number.

1 or 2? The Binary Medical Specialty Explorer

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Medical specialty explorer

1 or 2? The Binary Medical Specialty Explorer

Do you want long-term relationships with patients to be a major part of your work?

Specialties and fellowship paths suggested by your answers